Polen:Krisen slår mod eksporten

18.Okt. 2008

Underskuddet i Polens handels- og betalingsbalance stiger,samtidig som inflationen lå på 4,5 % i September steg lønningerne med 10,9 %, mens stigningen i beskæftigelsen stagnerer.

WARSZAWA, Polska – 14.Okt 2008 – –

Kapitalismens krise rammer eksporten fra Polens kapitalistiske industrier som stagnere, men importen fortsætter med to-cifrede vækstrater, hvilket øger underskuddet på handelsbalancen som alene i august løb op i 1503 millioner ~ 1,5 milliarder €uro.(ca 13 milliarder kr)
Stagnationen i Polens eksport vil føre til et fald i beskæftigelsen og massefyringer pga af faldet i eksportordrer. Det vil derfor ikke overraske os om vi i de kommende måneder vil opleve en stigning i arbejdsløsheden.
Beskæftigelsen i private kapitalistiske virksomheder løb op i 5,404 millioner mennesker i September, en stigning på 4.1% pro anno.

Væksten i eksporten stagnerer signficantly in August

Poland recorded a current account deficit of €UR 1736 millioner i August fra €UR 1.222 milioner i Juli , according to central bank figures released Monday.

The trade gap amounted to €UR 1503 millioner.

Eksportens of goods grew by 7.1% pro anno to €UR 9246 millioner. Det er kun nogle få procent over inflation som i September lå på 4,5 % – langt over direktiverne i de kapitalistiske €uro-pagtregler (ØMU)

Importen steg med 17,5% til €UR 10.749 millioner.
Poland sported a surplus on services of €UR 167 mln in August, a negative balance on income of €UR 991 mln and a balance on current transfers at a positive €UR 591 mln.

MATEUSZ SZCZUREK, ING BSK ECONOMIST

The deficit in trade was slightly lower than we had expected. But the slowdown in exports is notable. It is not something that should scare us as to some extent it is the effect of a smaller number of working days in August. But it is also the effect of a slowdown abroad and we will not run away from worse data on exports in the coming months. That does not have to mean a decrease of the deficit. We are threatened by a slowdown in investment growth, so lower imports will follow in the footsteps of smaller exports.

ERNEST PYTLARCZYK, BRE BANK ECONOMIST

We see a rise in the C/A deficit, a rise in trade deficit. Stagnation i eksport-væksten ligger i linie med vore diagnosis that the economy of the EU and of Poland is slowing down. We are slightly surprised with large growth of imports, but we are leaning towards an opinion it is a one-off.
Wages counting out bonus payments from profit at PLN 3,171 were up 11.0% year on year on a monthly increase of 0.3%.

Poland’s corporate employment measured 5.404 mln persons in September, an increase of 4.1% y/y, up by 0.1% from the prior month.

The tie up of jobs and wages pushed the nominal corporate wage bill up 15.4% year on year on a 0.3% up month on month, calculations against the data showed.

Inflation rate declines to 4.5%
Warsaw, Poland October 15, 2008
Poland’s September consumer prices were up 4.5% y/y, and up 0.3% month on month, after 4.8% y/y inflation in August, stats office GUS informed in a statement.

Trade deficit continues to widen
Warsaw, Poland October 15, 2008
Poland’s trade deficit, as measured by customs declarations, hit EUR 15.2216 bln through the end of August, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) said.

Expressed in dollars, the trade deficit measured $23.3931 milliarder

The figures are based on customs data, not the payment flows recorded by the central bank in current account releases. Also, whereas the NBP releases data covering a given month, GUS releases cumulative data, in this case, for the January-August period.

In the first eight months of the year, exports grew 16.2% to EUR 76.473 bln and imports were up 18.9% over the Jan-Aug 1997 period to EUR 91.695 bln.

In dollar terms, eksporten were up 33.2% to $117.101 bln and imports grew 36.3% to $140.494 bln.

Wages still growing at an annual clip well above 10%
Warszawa, Polska – Pazdzernik.. 16, 2008
Poland’s average corporate gross wage measured PLN 3,172 in September, a rise of 10.9% y/y on a 0.2% rise month on month, the stats office GUS said.

Wages counting out bonus payments from profit at PLN 3,171 were up 11.0% year on year on a monthly increase of 0.3%.

The tie up of jobs and wages pushed the nominal corporate wage bill up 15.4% year on year on a 0.3% up month on month, calculations against the data showed.

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